With the mild winter weather, the spring real estate market is already showing signs of life in Loudoun County. Buyers are out and about, beginning to check out what homes are available. Sellers are deciding on pricing and when to list their homes as active on the market. And everyone thinking about a move, whether as a buyer or a seller, is trying to gauge the market to see where it’s trending.  If you are basing your thinking on the national news regarding the real estate market, you  are going to have a problem this spring: Loudoun County is NOT a buyer’s market. In fact, it’s edging very close to a seller’s market right now.

(I’m going to give you a moment to digest that.)

Sure, we’ve seen some articles recently that talk about how strong and insulated the Washington DC metro area  real estate market is, but I want to give it to you on a usable level…what’s happening in Montgomery and Prince George’s County (or heck, even Fauquier) doesn’t necessarily apply here. Looking at our absorption rate (the rate at which homes are selling) shows us that we have 3.9 months of inventory, and 3 months or less is a seller’s market.

Absorption rate is calculated by taking the number of active listings and dividing it by the number of homes that have gone under contract within the last 30 days. Six months or more is a buyer’s market, 3 to 6 months is a balanced market, and under 3 months is a seller’s market.

As of today, there are 1290 active listings, and 326 homes under contract in 30 days or less. That’s 3.95 months of inventory. (That matches with the most recent sales data from December, homes sold last month averaged just 69 days on market.) Now, that figure includes the new construction market. Some of those ‘active’ listings are just placeholder listings for models within communities: builders put in one active listing to represent all available lots with that model.  So their listings tend to skew the data on active homes.

Looking strictly at the resale market, removing the new construction listings and contracts, there are only 893 homes for sale in ALL of Loudoun County right now. Resale contracts in the last 30 days total 254…which puts the resale absorption rate at 3.51 months of inventory. Even closer to a sellers’ market!

What does that mean for you? If you are thinking about buying this spring, be prepared…if inventory levels do not increase, we will continue to see homes going under contract quickly, with the potential for multiple offer situations. (Yes, we have been seeing this for the last couple of months!) Be prepared and organized when you are doing your home search so that you can act quickly when you decide you are ready to offer on a home.

As a seller? We are not going to see the run-up in pricing that accompanied the craziness of the market in 2004 and 2005.  However, you can expect that if your home is priced appropriately and is prepared for showing and sale, you should be able to successfully sell within 3 to 4 months at the most.

Certainly, if everybody and their brother puts their home on the market next week and our inventory count goes drastically higher, that will affect our absorption rates for this spring.  This is obviously an overview for all of LoCo; different price points, home types, and neighborhoods will have different situations. If you want to know how this applies specifically to your home and your neighborhood (or the neighborhood you are looking to move to) you can click here to schedule a consultation.

Cheers,
Heather

Median Home Price for Loudoun County

Here’s a wrapup of some news worth noting in LoCo lately….

• Our brand new Board of Supervisors has (temporarily?) put the brakes on the western sheriff’s substation that was slated to begin construction in Round Hill in March.  Loudoun voters approved a bond referendum in 2005 to fund it; 10 years of contentious negotiations had finally been smoothed out last September. The new board wants to re-evaluate the ‘fiscal impact’ of the substation.
• The Leesburg Police Department has paired up with Pump it Up for a Hop With a Cop program on Wednesday nights in January.   The fundraiser benefits the Law Enforcement Explorer Post 1041, a worksite-based program for highschoolers that may be interested in a career in law enforcement.
• Brambleton’s Ringing in Hope Race on New Year’s Eve brought out hundreds of runners for 10K and 5K runs, and a 1K walk.  Runners donated their registration fee to the participating local charity of their choice, including Loudoun Interfaith Relief, Jill’s House, Joshua’s Hands, La Voz of Loudoun, and Loudoun Habitat for Humanity, among others.
• Students at Mill Run Elementary in Ashburn partnered with Stop Hunger to pack 32,000 meals for the hungry in November.   As part of the PTO’s Community Cares program, the students collected $8,000 to fund the meals, then received an additional $1,000 donation, paying for another 4,000 meals.
• Want to know what is going where in Loudoun right now?  The Washington Post just compiled a handy list of what’s currently being developed.

Image credit: Matt Callow

As we turn a new calendar year, here is a quick peek at one of the trend lines from last year…median price for single family homes in Loudoun County rose from around $530,000 to about $570,000. Not too bad, eh?  I’m sure if you are thinking about selling (or heck, if you are a LoCo homeowner) you don’t mind seeing a 7% gain compared to last year.

Look for a more in depth year ending report shortly…

Cheers,
Heather

Everyone seemed to enjoy my HGTV-inspired How Much House for $400k in LoCo recently, so let’s revisit at a different price point…how much house will $600,000 get you in Loudoun?

In Sterling, there are only nine non-short sale homes available that are priced between $575,000 and $625,000…in that price range, you can choose from single family homes in the Cascades/Potomac Lakes/ Lowe’s Island neighborhoods. All have four or five bedrooms and at least 2500 finished square feet above grade, built between 10 and 20 years ago. (There’s a ton of similarity here, none really stand out to me. I will say that the home condition looks good for all of them, which is a plus.) In Ashburn, it’s much the same as Sterling. Nine available homes, all single family,  although more 5 bedroom homes, and all with around 3000 finished square feet above grade. The homes are mostly located in Ashburn Village, Ashburn Farm and Brambleton.

Looking toward Leesburg, though, there are more varied options. In that price point, you can find a courtyard home behind the gates in River Creek, several homes in the Courtland Village community, and some acreage properties just outside of town.  Way out in Western LoCo, your money offers more land with your home…and a healthy dose of history, too: the majority of homes in this price point were built over 100 years ago. Can’t say that’s typical for our market; with low inventory numbers I’m surprised to see so many historic homes available.

I haven’t gone into more detail here because I’m not allowed to give you specifics on homes that are currently listed. However, you can sign up for my hot homes newsletter if you want the inside scoop. Click here to subscribe.

Here are details on all the homes in LoCo priced between $575,000 and $625,000:

Showing properties 1 - 5 of 101. See more LoCo $575 to $625k.
(all data current as of 2/8/2012)

1. $614,900 : 42072 Glynn Tarra Pl, Leesburg
   
   6 beds, 5 full baths

   Home size: 4,776 sq ft

   Lot size: 3.01 ac
2. $615,000 : 42041 Porch Light Dr, Aldie
   
   4 beds, 4 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 4,635 sq ft

   Lot size: 6,970 sq ft
3. $576,800 : 22154 Oatlands Rd, Aldie
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Lot size: 6.97 ac
4. $594,900 : 42581 Olmsted Dr, Ashburn
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Lot size: 12,632 sq ft
5. $600,000 : 37324 Franklins Ford Pl, Purcellville
   
   4 beds, 3 full, 1 part baths

   Home size: 4,490 sq ft

   Lot size: 3.00 ac

Listing information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Read full disclaimer.

I’m here to help you with real estate stuff, so please don’t be shy…just ask. It’s what I do, and why I love my job.

Cheers,

Heather

While I view myself as a reliable source of information for all things real estate, I know I need to leave the mortgage and lending end of this business to the experts. Dan Green over at The Mortgage Reports is one of the most highly respected lenders out there.  His post yesterday explains the new HARP/Home Affordable Refinance Program guidelines (announced by the government yesterday) in terms clear enough for all of us to understand.

The good news? Many more people now qualify for this refinance program, even if you are under water on your home.  Here’s an excerpt:

If you’re underwater on your conforming, conventional mortgage, you may be eligible to refinance without paying down principal and without having to pay mortgage insurance.

Here is the details of the government’s new 2011 HARP refinance program.

Get a HARP refi quote now.

What Is HARP?

HARP was started in April 2009. It goes by several names. The government calls it HARP, as in Home Affordable Refinance Program.

The program is also known as the Making Home Affordable plan, the Obama Refi plan, and Relief Refinance.

In order to be eligible for the HARP refinance program :

1. Your loan must be backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
2. Your current mortgage must have a securitization date prior to June 1, 2009

If you meet these two criteria, you may be HARP-eligible. If your mortgage is FHA, USDA or a jumbo mortgage, you are not HARP-eligible.

Read the rest of the article …

 

According to Dan, the program is “meant to give homeowners who are current on their mortgages, and who have lost home equity, a chance to refinance at today’s low mortgage rates.”  Click here to ask me questions about the program, or to get connected with Dan for answers.

Cheers,
Heather