With the mild winter weather, the spring real estate market is already showing signs of life in Loudoun County. Buyers are out and about, beginning to check out what homes are available. Sellers are deciding on pricing and when to list their homes as active on the market. And everyone thinking about a move, whether as a buyer or a seller, is trying to gauge the market to see where it’s trending. If you are basing your thinking on the national news regarding the real estate market, you are going to have a problem this spring: Loudoun County is NOT a buyer’s market. In fact, it’s edging very close to a seller’s market right now.
(I’m going to give you a moment to digest that.)
Sure, we’ve seen some articles recently that talk about how strong and insulated the Washington DC metro area real estate market is, but I want to give it to you on a usable level…what’s happening in Montgomery and Prince George’s County (or heck, even Fauquier) doesn’t necessarily apply here. Looking at our absorption rate (the rate at which homes are selling) shows us that we have 3.9 months of inventory, and 3 months or less is a seller’s market.
Absorption rate is calculated by taking the number of active listings and dividing it by the number of homes that have gone under contract within the last 30 days. Six months or more is a buyer’s market, 3 to 6 months is a balanced market, and under 3 months is a seller’s market.
As of today, there are 1290 active listings, and 326 homes under contract in 30 days or less. That’s 3.95 months of inventory. (That matches with the most recent sales data from December, homes sold last month averaged just 69 days on market.) Now, that figure includes the new construction market. Some of those ‘active’ listings are just placeholder listings for models within communities: builders put in one active listing to represent all available lots with that model. So their listings tend to skew the data on active homes.
Looking strictly at the resale market, removing the new construction listings and contracts, there are only 893 homes for sale in ALL of Loudoun County right now. Resale contracts in the last 30 days total 254…which puts the resale absorption rate at 3.51 months of inventory. Even closer to a sellers’ market!
What does that mean for you? If you are thinking about buying this spring, be prepared…if inventory levels do not increase, we will continue to see homes going under contract quickly, with the potential for multiple offer situations. (Yes, we have been seeing this for the last couple of months!) Be prepared and organized when you are doing your home search so that you can act quickly when you decide you are ready to offer on a home.
As a seller? We are not going to see the run-up in pricing that accompanied the craziness of the market in 2004 and 2005. However, you can expect that if your home is priced appropriately and is prepared for showing and sale, you should be able to successfully sell within 3 to 4 months at the most.
Certainly, if everybody and their brother puts their home on the market next week and our inventory count goes drastically higher, that will affect our absorption rates for this spring. This is obviously an overview for all of LoCo; different price points, home types, and neighborhoods will have different situations. If you want to know how this applies specifically to your home and your neighborhood (or the neighborhood you are looking to move to) you can click here to schedule a consultation.
Cheers,
Heather
Median Home Price for Loudoun County
Tags: Loudoun County, Market Update, Real Estate
If you follow along with any of my social media accounts, you might have noticed some mention of New York City….I am in the Big Apple this week for the Inman Connect conference, which is put on by one of the most respected sources of real estate news, Inman News. I think it’s massively important for me to stay on top of the trends within the industry, so I attend this and a few other conferences throughout the year. My goal is to feed my brain by attending classes taught by some of the brightest minds in the industry; I also appreciate the opportunity to network with these folks and hear how their business is going. The real estate market and the way that transactions are handled is very different depending where you live, and I find it enlightening to hear how other professionals work.
It also gives me the chance to bring new strategies and good information back that I can put to use for my clients. Above everything else, I want to give my clients the best possible representation I can, and continuing my ‘real estate education’ is a big part of that.
Of course, the LoCoMusings team is still in the office in Loudoun County if you would like to set an appointment or have a question, so don’t hesitate to reach out. I’ll be back in LoCo tomorrow night. 
Cheers,
Heather
Tags: Heather Elias, Inman News, Real Estate
The touch of snow yesterday was beautiful in Western Loudoun…
Cheers,
Heather
Tags: LoCo Photo, Loudoun
Nestled atop Catoctin Mountain just west of Leesburg is Beacon Hill, a luxury community of million dollar homes. Named for the 326 acre estate once owned by 1950′s news personality Arthur Godfrey, there are now nearly 1100 acres of majestic landscape with breathtaking views.
The rolling landscape was originally owned by 1950s radio and television personality Arthur Godfrey. A LoCo favorite, the community hosts a variety of architectural designs on lots from one to eight acres. Original builders include Apex Custom Homes, Craftmark Homes, and Waterford Home Builders…and there are still a few buildable lots left. Also on site is the Clairvaux at Beacon Hill equestrian center, offering boarding, lessons, and training year round.
The Golf Club of Virginia at Beacon Hill, which closed in 2006, winds through the neighborhood and lays dormant awaiting new ownership. The famously difficult championship golf course was open for several years and received industry acclaim for the Johnny Miller design. You may see neighbors practicing their game on the empty fairways, which are still being maintained until the day comes that the course reopens.
Homes Currently For Sale in Beacon Hill:
Click here to schedule a time to view homes in Beacon Hill
Real Time Stats for the Top Market Quartile in 20176
Right axis: Median Price; Left axis: Inventory; Mini-chart at bottom: Days on Market
Cheers,
Heather
Tags: Beacon Hill, Communities, Leesburg, LoCo, Loudoun, Luxury Homes, Neighborhoods, Real Estate
Last year in January I did a wrapup post of the most expensive homes sold in Loudoun County for 2010. Obviously, now it’s time to take a look at the top 2011 luxury sales in LoCo. The top five homes sold, not unlike 2010, were all just about in the $2 million and above price range. Money may not be able to buy you happiness, but it can certainly get you some fantastic real estate:
11409 Coyote Court, Sterling: $1,950,000
Listed by Janean Buchner of RE/MAX Select and sold by Robin Bono of Weichert Realtors after 165 days on market. The home is located in Cascade Estates (near the 8th hole at Trump National Golf Club) on over an acre of land, was built in 2001, and boasts over 9600 finished square feet, an in-ground pool, and private putting green.
20443 St. Louis Road, Purcellville: $2,250,000
Listed by Gloria Rose Ott and sold by Cindy Polk, both of Armfield, Miller, and Ripley Fine Property, after 476 days on market. Combining two parcels for over 53 acres, this estate home has a newly remodeled main house with a sleeping porch, veranda, and in-ground pool. The guest house was built in 2009; the property is also home to a first class equestrian facility.
15916 Old Waterford Road, Paeonian Springs: $2,610,000
Co-listed by Nancy Yahner of Keller Williams and Jim Lemon of Middleburg Properties, and sold by Charles Blanks of Coldwell Banker Preferred Properties after 41 days on market. The main home was built in 1982 and is situated on 175 acres with mountain views. The property also has a tenant house, barn, pastures, pond, and woodlands. (And also, the potential for a vineyard, as pictured.)
15164 Berlin Turnpike, Waterford: $3,000,000
Listed by Jeffrey Stein of Tranzon Fox and sold by Sam Rees of Prudential Carruthers Realtors after 78 days on market. With numerous outbuildings, and 27 acres of land (including a 7 acre pond) , the historic Wheatland Manor property dates back to 1741. The listing was shy on details but offered that the property could be used for a corporate retreat.
And the most expensive home sold in Loudoun in 2011?
Grace Hill Farm
19786 Ebenezer Church Road, Bluemont: $4,500,000
Listed by Mary Ann McGowan and sold by Jim McGowan, IV, both from Thomas & Talbot Real Estate, the company that listed the most expensive home sold in 2010 as well. Built in 1998 and sited on 107 acres of land in western Loudoun, this home has over 10,000 finished square feet of luxury. Four fireplaces, five bedrooms, four full and two half baths, dual curved staircases, in-ground pool, stocked pond, mountain views, guest house….you get the picture. 
It looks absolutely amazing….a true luxury retreat, here in the most beautiful county in Virginia.
Cheers,
Heather
Tags: homes for sale, Loudoun County, Luxury Homes, Real Estate
